As news of the latest swine flu death (taking the national toll to 20 now) in India came in about an hour ago, I began wondering how to best control rapid spread and prevent deaths.
Upon not finding any easy answers to this I thought of looking at some numbers:-
Comparing numbers for some of the countries which have had a higher number of reported cases than India has and no deaths, throws up some interesting questions …
What makes it so difficult or complex to control rapid spread (esp. urban areas, given that all deaths have been in urban areas) of the virus in India? And, what has lead to the higher number of deaths due to the flu in India?
Given that a large country like China had almost twice as many cases, they have been fairly successful in controlling spread after the initial few months and preventing deaths due to the flu, it is perhaps worthwhile trying to think over this and find answers.
Thoughts, comments, views anyone?
August 13th, 2009 at 8:21 PM
Interesting numbers..I guess it’s difficult for our Indian health infrastructure to take swine flu head on, but I see everyone wearing masks on the streets and taking loads of precautions, plus we have our resilient immunity system-which is bound to bounce back soon – so that will hopefully keep the %deaths in check…m sure the same figures for USA & UK are much scarier…
August 13th, 2009 at 8:39 PM
Hi Nisha
Thanks for your comment
USA/UK numbers are not a point of fair comparison to make anyway (given the pandemic reached those countries earlier), but yes the numbers will possibly look better with time
But, I’m still perplexed at why no one died in China for instance, when they had twice as many reported cases as India?
(And, China is the fairest comparison to make from all the other countries I have shown in the Table above… in terms of population, problems, development life cycle, etc.)
August 15th, 2009 at 10:42 PM
Devang, you’d be naive if you believed China was 0 !
August 15th, 2009 at 11:03 PM
Perhaps Chinese official figures are suspect.
But, a lot of other countries with higher cases have had no deaths reported.
I asked this question to my mum a litte while ago….
What makes it difficult to control rapid spread & prevent deaths?
She offered a somewhat simplistic answer to it… but one which gives an interesting peek into general Indian psyche,,,,
When we fall ill with a common cold, cough or fever.. we never go see a doctor immediately… we wait for 2-3 days, do our own medication and only go to see the doctor when things get worse… also, generally we dont refrain from going out of the house into work/school whatever when we have a cold/cough/fever, not thinking about how we may end up spreading the virus around.
Not yet completely sure if I’ve found my answers… but this is a beginning.
August 24th, 2009 at 5:13 PM
My dear Devang,
I’m happy that — sitting there in Seoul — you have the compassion to think about us in India. My approach to an answer about your “wonder” is radically different.
In India, the public health system — like our public education system (govt. schools and universities); public distribution system (ration shops); public transport (buses, except for the railways) — have been “decimated” by wilfull neglect, systematic under-funding and huge corruption.
This means that when a swine flu epidemic strikes, we demand that an under-funded public health system should respond and save lives. On the other hand, the private hospitals have NEVER bothered about public health, because they have been allowed, by the government, the freedom to make profits (witness the scandal in donations or capitation fees for private medical colleges) treating illnesses that have little to do with public health.
However, the starved public health system has risen to the occasion. If you read the latest issue of the Economic and Political Weekly (www.epw.org), you will see what I mean.
I prefer to look at the inter-connections between politics and economics, when discussing an epidemic like the swine flu, rather than take a purely “medical or clinical” approach.
Peace and love,
- Joe.
August 28th, 2009 at 10:32 AM
Thanks for your comment Joe… useful to always get a fuller (broader) perspective
An interesting thing which came out during a talk show on a TV news channel recently (think it was NDTV), was a lot of patients who had recovered from swine flu saying that the public hospitals did a great job in managing the health “crisis” (if you will) and that this definitely changes their view of the quality of treatment & consultation public hospitals offer
[Needless to say, NDTV talk show audiences are usually the cream of society... but, nevertheless, interesting to note how this pandemic scare has brought about a change in the way we look at public health system in India]